HSBC has revised its price target for Amgen (AMGN, Financial), reducing it from $385 to $357, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. This adjustment comes as the biopharmaceutical sector faces potential challenges due to new U.S. tariffs, a significant patent cliff, and the impact of the Part D and Inflation Reduction Act.
The firm highlights that innovative pharmaceutical companies, such as Amgen, could encounter earnings pressure ranging from 6% to 14% if a 25% U.S. tariff is implemented. In addition to this, HSBC's analysis points to other possible risks, which might affect earnings, including implications on tax rates, depending on how tariffs are structured. Investors have been informed that these factors could influence Amgen's financial performance in the foreseeable future.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 25 analysts, the average target price for Amgen Inc (AMGN, Financial) is $320.36 with a high estimate of $400.00 and a low estimate of $185.00. The average target implies an upside of 14.07% from the current price of $280.84. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Amgen Inc (AMGN) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 33 brokerage firms, Amgen Inc's (AMGN, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.5, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Amgen Inc (AMGN, Financial) in one year is $346.96, suggesting a upside of 23.54% from the current price of $280.84. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Amgen Inc (AMGN) Summary page.
AMGN Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 04, 2025
- Total Revenue: $33.4 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase.
- Product Sales Growth: 19% year-over-year, driven by 23% volume growth.
- Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 47% for the full year.
- Non-GAAP R&D Spend: Increased 25% year-over-year to $5.9 billion.
- Free Cash Flow: $10.4 billion for the full year, $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter.
- Repatha Sales: Increased 36% to over $2.2 billion.
- EVENITY Sales: Increased 35% to almost $1.6 billion.
- TEPEZZA Sales: $1.9 billion, a 5% year-over-year growth.
- TEZSPIRE Sales: Nearly $1 billion, a 71% year-over-year increase.
- Oncology Portfolio Sales: Almost $8 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase.
- Biosimilar Products Sales: $2.2 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase.
- Dividend: $2.25 per share in the fourth quarter, a 6% increase from 2023.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Amgen Inc (AMGN, Financial) reported a 19% year-over-year increase in total revenues for 2024, driven by strong product sales growth.
- The company achieved double-digit growth for 10 products and had 14 products annualizing at over $1 billion in sales.
- Repatha and EVENITY showed significant growth, with Repatha sales increasing by 36% to over $2.2 billion.
- Amgen Inc (AMGN) successfully launched TEPEZZA in Japan and plans to expand into seven additional countries in 2025.
- The company is advancing its pipeline with important Phase 3 data readouts expected in 2025, including for MariTide in obesity and related conditions.
Negative Points
- Amgen Inc (AMGN) faces challenges from declining net prices and losses of exclusivity for some products.
- The company anticipates continued price declines across its portfolio in 2025, which could impact revenue growth.
- There is increased competition in the market for Repatha, particularly from oral PCSK9 inhibitors.
- Amgen Inc (AMGN) is dealing with the impact of increased interest expenses due to the Horizon acquisition.
- The company expects a decline in free cash flow performance in 2025 compared to 2023, driven by working capital changes and increased capital expenditures.
