April 28 - U.S. equities rallied well last week as large-cap technology shares led gains. The S&P 500 climbed more than 3%, narrowing its drawdown from early-year lows to under 3%, while the Cboe Volatility Index more than halved from recent peaks. Pasquariello from Goldman Sachs warned, however, that the index remains roughly 11% below its February high, underscoring a still “fluid” trading backdrop.
As investors brace for a slate of big tech earnings and Friday's jobs report, Pasquariello said markets are navigating one of the sharpest narrative shifts since the 2008–09 crisis. He noted that “technical factors tilt net positive” for the first time in two months after systematic and discretionary funds moved from selling to buying.
Yet fundamental risks persist. Traders face “gap up/gap down” sessions driven by U.S.-China trade signals and Fed policy, he added. Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) and Meta (META, Financial) were among tech names that saw buying support, but Pasquariello cautioned that sustained confidence hinges on tariff de-escalation or signs of economic resilience.
With the S&P 500 still trading near 20 times forward earnings, he said investors must weigh a tilt toward a “second-derivative” phase, hawkish trade policy with limited extreme outcomes. Until clarity emerges, he predicts elevated volatility where only agile traders prevail.
