B. Riley has adjusted its price target for TripAdvisor (TRIP, Financial), trimming it from $18 to $17, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The decision comes as the firm highlights macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly in the United States, which could impact the company's future outlook, specifically in the second quarter of 2025.
These concerns have led to a revision of the firm's estimates for TripAdvisor's performance. Analysts suggest that these economic factors may pose challenges to the online travel agency sector, potentially affecting TripAdvisor's growth and profitability projections.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 15 analysts, the average target price for Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP, Financial) is $17.13 with a high estimate of $24.00 and a low estimate of $10.00. The average target implies an upside of 34.91% from the current price of $12.70. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 18 brokerage firms, Tripadvisor Inc's (TRIP, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 3.0, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP, Financial) in one year is $23.81, suggesting a upside of 87.48% from the current price of $12.7. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP) Summary page.
TRIP Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 20, 2025
- Q4 2024 Revenue: $411 million, a 5% growth.
- Q4 2024 Adjusted EBITDA: $73 million, 18% of revenue.
- Full Year 2024 Revenue: $1.8 billion.
- Full Year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA: $339 million.
- Viator Revenue Q4 2024: $186 million, 16% growth.
- Viator Gross Bookings Value (GBV) Q4 2024: Approximately $840 million, 17% growth.
- TheFork Revenue Q4 2024: $48 million, 23% growth.
- Brand Tripadvisor Revenue Q4 2024: $204 million, a decline of 6%.
- Brand Tripadvisor Adjusted EBITDA Q4 2024: $53 million, 26% of revenue.
- Full Year 2024 Viator and TheFork Revenue Contribution: 56% of Group revenue.
- Q4 2024 Operating Cash Flow: Negative $2 million.
- Q4 2024 Free Cash Flow: Negative $25 million.
- Full Year 2024 Operating Cash Flow: $144 million.
- Full Year 2024 Free Cash Flow: $7 million.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents at Year-End 2024: Approximately $1.1 billion.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP, Financial) exceeded expectations on both top and bottom lines for Q4 and the full year 2024, with consolidated revenue growing 5% to $411 million.
- Viator and TheFork segments contributed more than half of the company's revenue, delivering $52 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year.
- Viator's direct booking volume grew nearly 30% for the full year, with the mobile app being the fastest-growing channel, showing an 80% increase in booking volume.
- TheFork segment achieved full-year profitability for the first time, with revenue growing 18% to $181 million.
- Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP) is leveraging AI and data to enhance product offerings and improve customer experience, positioning itself for future growth.
Negative Points
- Brand Tripadvisor's revenue declined by 6% in Q4, with branded hotels revenue decreasing by 7%.
- The experiences and dining revenue segment saw an 8% decline, reflecting challenges in balancing product-led transitions.
- Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin showed modest deleverage, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Operating cash flow was negative $2 million in Q4, with free cash flow also negative, highlighting cash management challenges.
- The company faces FX headwinds, particularly impacting Viator's revenue due to euro-denominated business.
