Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan has adjusted the price target for Comcast (CMCSA, Financial), reducing it from $55 to $38, while maintaining an Outperform rating. Despite robust EBITDA and substantial free cash flow in the first quarter, these encouraging figures were overshadowed by disappointing subscriber performance.
The analyst expressed concerns about Comcast's pricing strategy, which is deemed a hurdle for further growth in cable revenue and profit margins. As competition intensifies and economic conditions become more challenging, consumers are likely to prioritize cost savings. Oppenheimer notes that these factors could create a challenging environment for Comcast to sustain its market position and financial growth.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 25 analysts, the average target price for Comcast Corp (CMCSA, Financial) is $41.81 with a high estimate of $58.00 and a low estimate of $31.00. The average target implies an upside of 25.98% from the current price of $33.19. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Comcast Corp (CMCSA) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 30 brokerage firms, Comcast Corp's (CMCSA, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.4, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Comcast Corp (CMCSA, Financial) in one year is $45.95, suggesting a upside of 38.45% from the current price of $33.19. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Comcast Corp (CMCSA) Summary page.
CMCSA Key Business Developments
Release Date: January 30, 2025
- Revenue: Record revenue of $124 billion for 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA: Record adjusted EBITDA of $38 billion in 2024.
- Adjusted EPS: Increased by 9% for the year.
- Free Cash Flow: Generated $12.5 billion for the year.
- Broadband Revenue: Grew 3% for the year.
- Convergence Revenue: Grew nearly 5% for the year.
- Wireless Revenue: Grew at a mid-teens rate, with 1.2 million new lines added.
- Business Services Revenue: Grew at mid-single digit rates, approaching $10 billion in revenue.
- Peacock EBITDA Losses: Improved by $1 billion.
- Net Broadband Subscriber Additions: Negative 139,000 in the fourth quarter.
- Adjusted EPS (Q4): Increased 14% to $0.96.
- Free Cash Flow (Q4): $3.3 billion.
- Capital Returned to Shareholders: $13.5 billion for the full year.
- Net Leverage: Ended the year at 2.3x.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Comcast Corp (CMCSA, Financial) achieved record revenue of $124 billion and record adjusted EBITDA of $38 billion in 2024.
- The company reported a 9% growth in Adjusted EPS and generated substantial free cash flow of $12.5 billion.
- Wireless revenue grew at a mid-teens rate, adding 1.2 million lines, reaching 12% penetration of the broadband customer base.
- Peacock achieved a $1 billion improvement in EBITDA losses, with strong revenue growth of 46% for the full year.
- Comcast Business is nearly $10 billion in revenue, with plans to acquire Nitel to enhance capabilities in serving multisite enterprise and midmarket businesses.
Negative Points
- Net broadband subscriber additions were negative 139,000 in the fourth quarter, indicating intense competition.
- The company faces challenges from fixed wireless expansion and the end of the ACP program.
- Increased competition from fiber operators and fixed wireless is expected to continue, impacting broadband growth.
- The company anticipates significant costs leading up to the opening of Epic Universe, impacting short-term financials.
- Peacock's NBA content addition may initially increase costs, requiring strategic adjustments to absorb expenses.
