Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD, Financial) has undergone a reassessment by Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski, who has decided to lower the company's price target from $82 to $71. Despite maintaining a Hold rating on the shares, the analyst's revised outlook includes expectations of a moderate economic recession.
As part of this recalibration, Wieczynski adjusted the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) forecasts for the years 2025 to 2027, reducing them by around 5% on average. This adjustment positions the firm's estimates approximately 5% below the consensus among analysts.
These moves reflect a more cautious stance on Boyd Gaming's potential performance in light of economic uncertainties. The revised estimates suggest the firm is preparing for potential challenges ahead, particularly those posed by an anticipated economic downturn.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average target price for Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD, Financial) is $80.15 with a high estimate of $88.00 and a low estimate of $71.00. The average target implies an upside of 21.37% from the current price of $66.04. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 15 brokerage firms, Boyd Gaming Corp's (BYD, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD, Financial) in one year is $80.99, suggesting a upside of 22.64% from the current price of $66.04. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD) Summary page.
BYD Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 06, 2025
- Full-Year Revenue: Over $3.9 billion, setting a record for the company.
- Full-Year EBITDA: Nearly $1.4 billion.
- Property Level Operating Margins: Over 40% for the full year.
- Fourth-Quarter Revenue: Surpassed $1 billion for the first time.
- Fourth-Quarter EBITDA: Nearly $380 million.
- Las Vegas Locals Segment Operating Margins: Exceeded 50%.
- Midwest and South Segment Same-Store Margins: Consistent at 37%.
- Online Segment Full-Year EBITDA: $76 million after excluding $32 million one-time fees.
- Managed Business Full-Year EBITDA: $96 million.
- Stock Repurchase in Fourth Quarter: $203 million.
- Total 2024 Stock Repurchase: $686 million.
- Total Capital Returned to Shareholders in 2024: Nearly $750 million.
- Year-End Total Leverage: Approximately 2.5 times.
- Capital Expenditures in 2024: $400 million.
- 2025 Capital Expenditure Estimate: $600 million to $650 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD, Financial) achieved record revenues of over $3.9 billion in 2024, with companywide EBITDA nearing $1.4 billion.
- The Las Vegas Locals segment delivered its best year-over-year performance in 2024, with operating margins exceeding 50%.
- The Online segment generated $76 million in EBITDA for the full year, reflecting growth from market access agreements and online gaming.
- The Managed business generated $96 million in EBITDA for 2024, driven by management fees from Sky River Casino.
- Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD) returned nearly $750 million in capital to shareholders in 2024 through share repurchases and dividends.
Negative Points
- Competitive pressures in the Las Vegas market continue to pose challenges, particularly for properties like Orleans and Gold Coast.
- The Midwest and South segment faced weather-related disruptions in January, similar to the previous year.
- The Online segment's performance was impacted by lower hold during the NFL season.
- Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD) anticipates continued expense pressures, although they are moderating compared to previous years.
- The company remains cautious about the retail customer segment, which has shown stability but not significant growth.
