April 25 - The S&P 500 Index may fall to roughly 3,700 points, a drop of about 37% from January, if tariff uncertainty sparks even a “mild recession,” Wolfe Research strategist Chris Senyek said in a recent note.
He forecasts index earnings per share to decline at least 15% from around $266 to near $225, echoing the median 16.7% EPS slide seen in the last four recessions. Senyek also sees price-to-earnings multiples contracting from the current 19.4x toward a 16.6x–18.4x historical range.
Since President Trump's April 2 tariff announcement, volatility has surged: the S&P 500 briefly entered bear territory and remains more than 6.5% lower year-to-date and about 11% below its February peak. A three-day rally this week eased losses as trade tensions cooled and earnings topped forecasts.
The outlook highlights risks that renewed tariff uncertainty could tip real GDP into about 1% year-on-year contraction, Senyek's model shows, underscoring how policy shifts might deepen a downturn.
