Piper Sandler has revised its outlook on National Bank Holdings (NBHC, Financial), lowering the price target from $43 to $38 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. This adjustment follows the bank's recent quarterly earnings release.
The firm updated its financial model to reflect a combination of factors impacting the bank's performance. These include projections of slower loan growth and a slightly reduced earning asset base. On a positive note, there is an expectation of an improved margin outlook, although this is coupled with anticipated higher expenses due to further investments in the 2Unifi platform expansion.
Additionally, Piper Sandler has factored in a small scale of near-term share buybacks into their analysis. Despite these updates, the overall outlook remains neutral, indicating a balanced view of potential gains and challenges ahead for NBHC.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 5 analysts, the average target price for National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC, Financial) is $40.60 with a high estimate of $44.00 and a low estimate of $38.00. The average target implies an upside of 14.69% from the current price of $35.40. More detailed estimate data can be found on the National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 5 brokerage firms, National Bank Holdings Corp's (NBHC, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.8, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC, Financial) in one year is $46.03, suggesting a upside of 30.03% from the current price of $35.4. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC) Summary page.
NBHC Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 23, 2025
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.63 per diluted share.
- Net Income: $24.2 million.
- Return on Tangible Assets: 1.1%.
- Net Interest Margin: 3.93% fully taxable equivalent.
- Net Interest Income: $88.6 million fully taxable equivalent.
- Loan Balances: Decreased by $105 million.
- Deposit Balances: Increased by $186 million.
- Cost of Deposits: Improved by 9 basis points to 2.03%.
- Nonperforming Loan Ratio: 45 basis points of total loans.
- Net Charge-Offs: 20 basis points for the quarter.
- Provision Expense: $10.2 million.
- Allowance to Total Loans Ratio: 1.2%.
- Noninterest Income: $15.4 million.
- Noninterest Expense: $62 million.
- Tangible Book Value Per Share: $25.94, a 2.6% increase.
- Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio: 13.6%.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- National Bank Holdings Corp (NBHC, Financial) reported a solid return on average tangible assets of 1.1% despite a significant charge-off due to suspected fraud.
- The company experienced a 3.4% growth in fully taxable equivalent pre-provision net revenue compared to the first quarter of the previous year.
- Spot deposit balances grew by $186 million during the quarter, benefiting from seasonal tax inflows and the Cambr platform deposits.
- The nonperforming loan ratio remains below peer averages, ending the quarter at 45 basis points of total loans.
- The company maintained strong liquidity levels with a TCE ratio of 10.1%, Tier 1 leverage ratio of 10.9%, and a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.6%.
Negative Points
- The first quarter earnings were negatively impacted by a $9 million charge-off related to suspected fraudulent activity by a borrower.
- Loan balances decreased by $105 million due to elevated levels of economic uncertainty, causing clients to delay their funding needs.
- The fully taxable equivalent net interest margin decreased to 3.93% due to two fewer business days and lower earning asset balances.
- Noninterest income was lower than expected, with service charges and bank card fees seasonally lower during the first quarter.
- The company is operating in a risk-off posture due to economic uncertainties, impacting its ability to engage in capital projects or M&A activities.
