Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX, Financial) has revealed results from a detailed analysis of two long-term studies examining the use of Ingrezza capsules in treating tardive dyskinesia (TD) in older adults. The findings, published in The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, highlight the safety and effectiveness of the treatment over a 48-week period. This research is noted as the first of its kind for a vesicular monoamine transporter 2 inhibitor targeting TD in this age group.
The post-hoc analysis encompassed data from 304 individuals who participated in the KINECT 3 extension and KINECT 4 studies, all receiving a daily dose of Ingrezza for up to 48 weeks. Among the participants, 55 were aged 65 and above. Initially, participants from both age groups had a mean score of about 12 on the Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale, indicating moderate to severe symptoms in various body regions.
The analysis focused on monitoring adverse events and psychiatric symptoms to evaluate the safety profile of Ingrezza. Neurocrine emphasized the notable and sustained symptom improvement in participants aged 65 and over throughout the study period. Importantly, no significant differences in safety and efficacy outcomes between the age groups were observed after 48 weeks of treatment.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 23 analysts, the average target price for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX, Financial) is $154.66 with a high estimate of $192.00 and a low estimate of $96.00. The average target implies an upside of 46.23% from the current price of $105.76. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 26 brokerage firms, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc's (NBIX, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX, Financial) in one year is $191.98, suggesting a upside of 81.52% from the current price of $105.76. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) Summary page.
NBIX Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 06, 2025
- INGREZZA Sales Guidance for 2025: $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion, reflecting $250 million growth at the midpoint.
- CRENESSITY Q4 2024 Sales: $2 million in net sales from initial bottle orders.
- 2024 INGREZZA Sales Growth: Increased by approximately $475 million.
- SG&A Operating Expense for 2025: Reflects investment in CRENESSITY launch and expanded INGREZZA salesforce.
- R&D Investment for 2025: Includes $60 million in development milestones, with $35 million for Takeda and $15 million for Nxera.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX, Financial) reported record sales growth for INGREZZA in 2024, with an increase of approximately $475 million driven by increased volume and strong compliance.
- The company anticipates INGREZZA's sales to reach $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion in 2025, reflecting continued growth despite increased competitive pressure.
- CRENESSITY, a first-in-class treatment for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, received early FDA approval and has shown promising early launch dynamics.
- Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) plans to expand its clinical stage pipeline from 12 to 18 programs by the end of 2025, indicating a robust and broad neuroscience pipeline.
- The company has a strong focus on research and development, with plans to initiate multiple Phase 3 programs in 2025, including Osavampator for major depressive disorder and NBI-568 for schizophrenia.
Negative Points
- Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) faces increased competitive pressure and utilization management by payers, which has led to a slower growth trajectory for INGREZZA heading into 2025.
- The launch of CRENESSITY is expected to be measured initially due to delayed timing of reimbursement, patient flow frequency, and trialing by clinicians.
- The company anticipates a complex payer environment and competitive dynamics to impact INGREZZA's growth, with increased hurdles related to prior authorization.
- There is uncertainty regarding the long-term growth trajectory of INGREZZA, with ongoing debates about its peak sales potential in the US.
- Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) acknowledges potential headwinds from its own sales force expansion, which may cause disruption before contributing to growth.
