Roth Capital has revised its price target for Matador Resources (MTDR, Financial), reducing it from $68 to $65 while maintaining a Buy rating. This adjustment follows the company's recent first-quarter report.
Matador's production guidance for 2025 has been lowered, with the overall output guidance declining by 2.4% at the midpoint. Additionally, the firm's oil production guidance for the same year has been cut by 3.3%.
The reduction in estimates reflects these production adjustments, although Roth Capital highlights that Matador's trading multiple remains below that of its peers.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 18 analysts, the average target price for Matador Resources Co (MTDR, Financial) is $68.22 with a high estimate of $86.00 and a low estimate of $47.00. The average target implies an upside of 68.01% from the current price of $40.61. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Matador Resources Co (MTDR) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 20 brokerage firms, Matador Resources Co's (MTDR, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Matador Resources Co (MTDR, Financial) in one year is $78.62, suggesting a upside of 93.62% from the current price of $40.605. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Matador Resources Co (MTDR) Summary page.
MTDR Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 19, 2025
- Year-over-Year Production Growth: Increased from 4.6 million BOEs to over 6 billion BOEs from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.
- Expected Quarterly Growth: Approximately 30% growth expected for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024; similar growth anticipated for Q2 and Q3 2025.
- Cost Savings: Estimated savings of $30 million to $50 million through batch drilling.
- Dividend Increase: Confidence in raising the dividend due to asset growth.
- Insider Transactions: Over 30 insider transactions by senior management.
- Employee Stock Purchase Plan Participation: Over 95% of staff participating.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Matador Resources Co (MTDR, Financial) reported significant year-over-year growth, with production increasing from $4.6 million BOEs to over $6 billion BOEs.
- The company successfully integrated the Ameredev properties, which are noted for their high-quality rock, and expects a 20% to 30% growth rate in 2025.
- Matador Resources Co achieved substantial cost savings through batch drilling, estimated at $30 million to $50 million.
- The company has a strong financial position with a $3 billion line of credit and plans to maintain a measured growth pace.
- Matador Resources Co increased its dividend, reflecting confidence in its financial health and future growth prospects.
Negative Points
- The integration of Ameredev properties led to a timing issue affecting sequential growth, which some analysts viewed as a concern.
- Capital expenditures were higher in the fourth quarter and are expected to remain elevated in the first quarter of 2025.
- There is uncertainty regarding the future monetization of the midstream infrastructure, despite its significant development.
- The company faces challenges in managing the volatility of commodity prices, which impacts its financial planning.
- Matador Resources Co has not committed to stock buybacks, which may not align with the preferences of some short-term investors.
