Truist analyst Keith Hughes has adjusted the price target for Carlisle Companies Inc. (CSL, Financial), reducing it to $390 from the previous target of $420. Hughes maintains a Hold rating on the company's shares despite the adjustment. This revision reflects concerns over a deteriorating residential market outlook and rising risks of delays in commercial projects.
Carlisle's recent financial results exceeded market expectations, primarily driven by strong margins in its commercial roofing segment. Additionally, the company remains relatively insulated from fluctuations in China’s market, with minimal anticipated impact from current tariff levels. However, the potential for a slowdown in residential sectors and possible deferments in commercial ventures were significant factors in the revised price target.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 6 analysts, the average target price for Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL, Financial) is $436.67 with a high estimate of $465.00 and a low estimate of $390.00. The average target implies an upside of 18.89% from the current price of $367.28. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 8 brokerage firms, Carlisle Companies Inc's (CSL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.1, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL, Financial) in one year is $376.67, suggesting a upside of 2.56% from the current price of $367.28. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL) Summary page.
CSL Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 23, 2025
- Revenue: $1.1 billion, flat year-over-year.
- Diluted EPS: $3.13.
- Adjusted EPS: $3.61, a 3% decrease from the prior year.
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 21.8%, down 240 basis points from the prior year.
- CCM Segment Revenue: $799 million, up 2% year-over-year.
- CCM Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 27.1%, a decrease of 180 basis points year-over-year.
- CWT Segment Revenue: $297 million, down 5% year-over-year.
- CWT Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 15.6%, a decrease of 510 basis points year-over-year.
- Share Repurchases: 1.2 million shares for $400 million in Q1 2025.
- Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio: 1.2 times.
- Free Cash Flow Projection for 2025: Approximately $1 billion.
- ROIC: Expected to remain above 25% for the full year 2025.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL, Financial) reported solid first-quarter results despite significant challenges, including unfavorable weather and economic uncertainty.
- The company maintained a strong focus on reroofing activity, which represents 70% of its commercial business, helping to offset negative macroeconomic conditions.
- Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL) successfully integrated its 2024 MTL acquisition, exceeding synergy expectations and contributing positively to the company's performance.
- The company reaffirmed its 2025 outlook, expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 50 basis points.
- Carlisle Companies Inc (CSL) continues to invest in innovation, with new product introductions and factory automation expected to provide incremental adjusted EBITDA gains.
Negative Points
- The company faced continued weakness in residential construction markets due to buyer uncertainty, affordability challenges, and higher interest rates.
- First-quarter revenue was essentially flat year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margin down 240 basis points compared to the prior year.
- Pricing across both CCM and CWT segments experienced modest declines, with low single-digit price declines during the quarter.
- The indirect impact of tariffs remains difficult to quantify, with potential unforeseen consequences for contractors, distributors, and suppliers.
- Cash generation in the first quarter was lighter than usual due to higher year-end liabilities and unfavorable weather impacting shipping patterns.
