Bank of America has revised its outlook on Moderna (MRNA, Financial), reducing its price target for the pharmaceutical company from $32 to $26 while maintaining an Underperform rating. This adjustment comes amid lowered revenue projections for the firm.
The financial institution forecasts a 1% decline in revenue for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to remain stable. Longer-term projections for the late 2020s also suggest a significant reduction in total revenue estimates, expected to drop by 10 to 12%.
A major factor contributing to this adjustment is the decreased sales expectations for Moderna's mRNA-1083 product, influenced by a reduced probability-of-success assumption. Additionally, revenue from mRESVIA is anticipated to fall due to a lower market share assumption.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 21 analysts, the average target price for Moderna Inc (MRNA, Financial) is $49.10 with a high estimate of $212.00 and a low estimate of $20.00. The average target implies an upside of 83.90% from the current price of $26.70. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Moderna Inc (MRNA) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 27 brokerage firms, Moderna Inc's (MRNA, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 3.0, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Moderna Inc (MRNA, Financial) in one year is $21.62, suggesting a downside of 19.03% from the current price of $26.7. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Moderna Inc (MRNA) Summary page.
MRNA Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 14, 2025
- Total Revenue (2024): $3.2 billion, a 53% decline from 2023.
- Net Loss (2024): $3.6 billion compared to $4.7 billion in 2023.
- Net Product Sales (Q4 2024): $0.9 billion, with $0.2 billion in the US and $0.7 billion internationally.
- Net Product Sales (Full Year 2024): $3.1 billion, with $1.7 billion in the US and $1.4 billion internationally.
- Cash and Investments (Year-End 2024): $9.5 billion.
- Cost of Sales (Q4 2024): $739 million, including $238 million noncash charge for contract termination.
- R&D Expenses (Q4 2024): $1.1 billion, a 20% year-over-year decline.
- SG&A Expenses (Q4 2024): $351 million, down 25% year-over-year.
- Loss Per Share (Q4 2024): $2.91 compared to earnings per share of $0.55 in Q4 2023.
- Operating Expenses Reduction (2024): $2.6 billion compared to 2023.
- Projected Total Revenue (2025): $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion.
- Projected Cash Costs (2025): $5.5 billion.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Moderna Inc (MRNA, Financial) ended 2024 with $9.5 billion in cash and investments, exceeding their anticipated $9 billion.
- The company has prioritized 10 high-value programs expected to drive sales growth and diversification over the next three years.
- Moderna Inc (MRNA) reported positive Phase III results in four programs and filed for FDA approval for several vaccines, including next-gen COVID and RSV.
- The company achieved a significant reduction in operating expenses, cutting costs by $2.6 billion compared to 2023.
- Moderna Inc (MRNA) has two commercial products on the market and is focusing on expanding its presence in the RSV market.
Negative Points
- Moderna Inc (MRNA) reported a net loss of $3.6 billion for 2024, compared to a loss of $4.7 billion in 2023.
- Total revenue for 2024 was $3.2 billion, a 53% decline from 2023, primarily due to lower product sales.
- The company experienced a 66% decline in total revenue for Q4 2024 compared to the same period last year.
- Inventory write-downs and unutilized manufacturing capacity costs remain a challenge, with $600 million in related costs for 2024.
- The Norovirus vaccine trial is on clinical hold in the US due to a single case of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, impacting trial timelines.
