Susquehanna has revised its price target for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL, Financial), lowering it slightly to $169 from a previous target of $171. Despite this adjustment, the firm maintains a Neutral rating on Old Dominion's shares.
The decision to modify the price target follows the company's expectations for second quarter revenues and margins that are expected to fall below seasonal averages. This anticipated performance has been a focus for Susquehanna since the beginning of the year, as they look for the right opportunities to enter less-than-truckload (LTL) stocks with reduced risk.
As 2025 unfolds, Susquehanna plans to closely monitor the market for favorable conditions to invest in LTL companies, keeping a particular eye on Old Dominion’s performance and strategic opportunities.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 20 analysts, the average target price for Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL, Financial) is $171.21 with a high estimate of $215.00 and a low estimate of $135.00. The average target implies an upside of 11.73% from the current price of $153.23. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 25 brokerage firms, Old Dominion Freight Line Inc's (ODFL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.7, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL, Financial) in one year is $190.42, suggesting a upside of 24.27% from the current price of $153.23. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) Summary page.
ODFL Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 23, 2025
- Revenue: $1.37 billion for Q1 2025, a 5.8% decrease from the prior year.
- LTL Tons per Day: Decreased 6.3%, partially offset by a 2.2% increase in LTL revenue per 100 weight.
- Operating Ratio: Increased 190 basis points to 75.4% for Q1 2025.
- Cash Flow from Operations: $336.5 million for Q1 2025.
- Capital Expenditures: $88.1 million for Q1 2025; expected to total approximately $450 million for the year, reduced by $125 million from the initial plan.
- Share Repurchase Program: $201.1 million utilized in Q1 2025.
- Cash Dividends: Totaled $59.5 million in Q1 2025.
- Effective Tax Rate: 24.8% for Q1 2025, compared to 25.6% in Q1 2024.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL, Financial) maintained a high level of customer service with 99% on-time performance and a cargo claims ratio below 0.1%.
- The company improved its platform shipment per hour and P&D shipment per hour despite a 5% decline in LTL shipment per day.
- ODFL's yield management strategy continues to be effective, with a 2.2% increase in LTL revenue per 100 weight.
- The company has a strong cash flow from operations totaling $336.5 million for the first quarter of 2025.
- ODFL has maintained its market share and is well-positioned to capitalize on future economic improvements due to its disciplined approach and strategic investments.
Negative Points
- Revenue for the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 5.8% compared to the prior year, reflecting a challenging economic environment.
- The operating ratio increased by 190 basis points to 75.4%, indicating a deleveraging effect on operating expenses due to decreased revenue.
- ODFL experienced a 6.3% decrease in LTL tons per day, contributing to the overall revenue decline.
- The company reduced its 2025 capital expenditure plan by $125 million, indicating a cautious approach due to economic uncertainty.
- There is ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, which may delay a full recovery in business trends.
