The company has adjusted its financial expectations for the fiscal year 2025, providing new insights into revenue growth, earnings per share (EPS), and comparable store sales. The consensus forecast for EPS stands at $2.16, reflecting the company's projected earnings performance for the year. This projection aligns with market expectations.
In terms of revenue, the company has expanded its growth outlook, now anticipating a rise between 4% and 8% from the fiscal year 2024's total of $15.71 billion. This is an adjustment from the previous expectation of a 5% to 7% increase. The current revenue consensus also aligns with the FY24 figure of $15.71 billion.
The company has also revised its view on comparable store sales for FY25, setting a new growth range of 0% to 4%, down from the earlier prediction of a 1% to 3% increase. This adjustment indicates a more cautious stance on retail performance in the upcoming fiscal year.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 28 analysts, the average target price for Tractor Supply Co (TSCO, Financial) is $57.58 with a high estimate of $67.00 and a low estimate of $42.00. The average target implies an upside of 13.50% from the current price of $50.73. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 34 brokerage firms, Tractor Supply Co's (TSCO, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.5, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Tractor Supply Co (TSCO, Financial) in one year is $55.08, suggesting a upside of 8.57% from the current price of $50.73. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) Summary page.
TSCO Key Business Developments
Release Date: January 30, 2025
- Net Sales Growth (Q4): 3.1% increase.
- Comparable Store Sales (Q4): 0.6% increase.
- Diluted EPS (Q4): $0.44.
- Net Sales (Fiscal Year 2024): Nearly $14.9 billion, 2.2% growth from 2023.
- Comparable Store Sales (Fiscal Year 2024): 0.2% increase.
- Diluted EPS (Fiscal Year 2024): $2.04 on a split adjusted basis.
- Digital Sales (Fiscal Year 2024): Over $1.1 billion.
- Operating Cash Flow (Fiscal Year 2024): $1.4 billion.
- New Store Openings (2024): 80 Tractor Supply stores and 11 Petsense stores.
- Dividend Growth: 15th consecutive year.
- Gross Margin (Q4): 35.2%, a decrease of 9 basis points.
- SG&A Expenses (Q4): Increased 60 basis points to 26.8% of net sales.
- Operating Margin (Q4): 8.4%, a decline of 69 basis points.
- Net Sales Forecast (2025): $15.6 billion to $15.9 billion, 5% to 7% growth.
- Comparable Store Sales Forecast (2025): 1% to 3% increase.
- Capital Expenditures (2025): $650 million to $725 million.
- Share Repurchases (2025): $525 million to $600 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Tractor Supply Co (TSCO, Financial) achieved record financial results for the fiscal year 2024, with net sales nearly reaching $14.9 billion and a record diluted EPS of $2.04.
- The company opened 80 new Tractor Supply stores and 11 Petsense stores in 2024, demonstrating strong expansion efforts.
- Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) returned over $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases for the fourth consecutive year.
- The Neighbor's Club loyalty program continues to grow, with membership now exceeding 38 million and representing 80% of sales.
- The acquisition of Allivet is expected to expand Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)'s total addressable market by $15 billion, enhancing its offerings to pet owners.
Negative Points
- Comparable store sales growth was modest at 0.2% for the fiscal year, indicating challenges in driving same-store sales.
- The company faced a 69 basis point decline in operating margin for the fourth quarter, attributed to planned growth investments and modest deleverage of fixed costs.
- Deflation in key product categories, particularly commodity-based products, posed a headwind, with an estimated 100 basis point drag on comp sales performance in the quarter.
- The warm weather in November and December negatively impacted winter seasonal business, affecting sales in categories like insulated outerwear and heating.
- Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) anticipates continued SG&A deleverage in 2025 due to increased depreciation and investments in strategic initiatives.
