Since the launch of its popular weight-loss drug Wegovy in 2021, Novo Nordisk (NVO, Financial) has frequently raised its annual sales guidance. However, recent stagnation in U.S. prescription data has led some investors and analysts to question whether the company's momentum, which once made it Europe's most valuable listed company, is waning. In February, the Danish pharmaceutical giant projected a 16%-24% sales increase by 2025 at constant exchange rates, a slower growth rate than in previous years. Analysts and investors suggest this target may be unrealistic and anticipate a possible guidance cut when the company reports its first-quarter results.
Despite increasing Wegovy's supply in the U.S. to meet demand, prescription volumes have stabilized since mid-February. The competition has intensified with Eli Lilly's weight-loss injection Zepbound surpassing Wegovy's prescriptions by 128,000 as of early April. Additionally, Novo Nordisk and its competitors face risks from the U.S.-China trade tensions initiated by former President Trump.
While consensus forecasts from analysts predict a 19% sales growth for Novo Nordisk by 2025, some expect a reduction in guidance to 14%-22%, marking the slowest growth since 2021. Investor caution is heightened by competitive pressures and underwhelming clinical trial data for Novo Nordisk's new drug CagriSema, resulting in a significant market value drop since December.
