Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, Financial) has outlined its projections for 2025, signaling expectations for moderate growth in several areas. The company anticipates that full-year comparable restaurant sales will rise in the low single-digit range, reflecting a slight improvement from previous estimates of low to mid-single-digit growth.
In terms of expansion, Chipotle plans to open between 315 and 345 new company-owned restaurants throughout the year. Notably, over 80% of these new locations will feature a Chipotlane, the drive-thru format that supports digital order pickups, enhancing customer convenience.
The company also provided guidance on its fiscal strategy, projecting that its effective tax rate, excluding any discrete items, will fall between 25% and 27% for the full year. This financial planning underscores Chipotle's strategy to maintain fiscal responsibility while pursuing growth.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 31 analysts, the average target price for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG, Financial) is $62.39 with a high estimate of $73.00 and a low estimate of $46.12. The average target implies an upside of 27.96% from the current price of $48.76. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 36 brokerage firms, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's (CMG, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG, Financial) in one year is $60.64, suggesting a upside of 24.36% from the current price of $48.76. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Summary page.
Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 04, 2025
- Annual Revenue: $11.3 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year.
- Annual Comparable Sales Growth: 7.4%, with over 5% transaction growth.
- Annual Digital Sales: $3.9 billion, representing 35% of total sales.
- Annual Average Unit Volumes (AUVs): $3.2 million.
- Annual Restaurant Level Margin: 26.7%, an increase of 50 basis points year-over-year.
- Annual Adjusted Diluted EPS: $1.12, a 24% growth over last year.
- New Restaurant Openings (Annual): 304, including 257 Chipotlanes.
- Fourth Quarter Revenue: $2.8 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year.
- Fourth Quarter Comparable Sales Growth: 5.4%.
- Fourth Quarter Digital Sales: 34% of total sales.
- Fourth Quarter Restaurant Level Margin: 24.8%, a decline of 60 basis points year-over-year.
- Fourth Quarter Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.25, a 19% growth over last year.
- New Restaurant Openings (Q4): 119, including 95 Chipotlanes.
- Cash and Investments: $2.3 billion with no debt.
- Share Repurchase: $331 million in Q4, $1 billion for the full year.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG, Financial) reported a 15% increase in sales for fiscal year 2024, reaching $11.3 billion, driven by a 7.4% comp and over 5% transaction growth.
- The company opened a record 304 new restaurants in 2024, including 257 Chipotlanes, contributing to its expansion strategy.
- Digital sales accounted for 35% of total sales, highlighting the company's strong digital presence and customer engagement.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) achieved a restaurant-level margin of 26.7% for the fiscal year, marking a 50 basis point increase year over year.
- The company demonstrated strong leadership development, with over 23,000 promotions in 2024, including three Regional Vice Presidents who started as crew members.
Negative Points
- Restaurant-level margin for the fourth quarter declined by 60 basis points year over year to 24.8%, indicating some pressure on profitability.
- The company experienced volatility in comps during the fourth quarter, particularly around the December holidays, due to calendar shifts.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) faces potential cost pressures from new tariffs on items imported from Mexico, Canada, and China, which could impact cost of sales by about 60 basis points.
- The company anticipates low- to mid-single digit comp growth for 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook amid tougher comparisons and external challenges.
- Weather and calendar shifts negatively impacted transaction comps in January 2025, with a reported negative 2% transaction comp for the month.
