As Discover Financial Services (DFS, Financial) prepares to release its earnings, the options market is exhibiting notable activity with volumes running 1.3 times higher than usual. Investors are showing a strong preference for puts over calls, at a ratio of 10:3, indicating a cautious sentiment ahead of the results.
The implied volatility in the market points to an expected stock movement of approximately 3.1%, or $5.45, following the announcement. This anticipated change is slightly above the median movement of 2.8% observed over the last eight quarters, highlighting an increased level of market uncertainty or anticipation surrounding the company's financial performance.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 11 analysts, the average target price for Discover Financial Services (DFS, Financial) is $200.64 with a high estimate of $240.00 and a low estimate of $153.00. The average target implies an upside of 12.64% from the current price of $178.12. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Discover Financial Services (DFS) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 17 brokerage firms, Discover Financial Services's (DFS, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.5, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Discover Financial Services (DFS, Financial) in one year is $153.55, suggesting a downside of 13.79% from the current price of $178.12. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Discover Financial Services (DFS) Summary page.
Key Business Developments
Release Date: January 23, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Discover Financial Services (DFS, Financial) reported a net income of $4.5 billion for the full year 2024, with earnings per share of $17.72.
- The company successfully completed the sale of its private student loan portfolio, resulting in financial benefits and a streamlined business model.
- Net interest margin expanded, ending the quarter at 11.96%, up 98 basis points from the prior year.
- Average consumer deposits increased by 10% year-over-year, enhancing the company's funding mix.
- DFS made significant progress in risk management and compliance, meeting regulatory requirements and resolving card misclassification issues.
Negative Points
- Discover card sales declined by 3% compared to the prior year, primarily due to credit tightening actions.
- Total operating expenses increased by $67 million or 4% year-over-year, driven by higher compensation costs and merger-related expenses.
- Net charge-offs were 4.64%, 53 basis points higher than the prior year, indicating increased credit losses.
- The company restated financial results dating back to 2021 due to a reclassification of amounts related to card tiering accrual.
- An independent review identified approximately $60 million of incremental charges related to card product misclassification, impacting financial results.
