StoneCo Ltd. (STNE, Financial) is experiencing significant bullish sentiment in the options market, with a notable increase in call trading activity. A total of 4,449 call options have been traded, which is double the expected volume. This surge is accompanied by a rise in implied volatility, climbing over one percentage point to reach 60.29%.
The most heavily traded options include the January 27 call at a strike price of $15 and the May 25 call at $13, with these two strikes accounting for nearly 3,000 contracts. This heightened activity is reflected in the Put/Call Ratio, which stands at a low 0.10, indicating a strong preference for call options over puts.
Investors appear to be positioning themselves ahead of StoneCo's upcoming earnings report, anticipated on May 8th. The pronounced interest in call options suggests optimism about the potential performance of StoneCo in the coming months.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 14 analysts, the average target price for StoneCo Ltd (STNE, Financial) is $14.11 with a high estimate of $19.01 and a low estimate of $6.00. The average target implies an upside of 8.03% from the current price of $13.06. More detailed estimate data can be found on the StoneCo Ltd (STNE) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 14 brokerage firms, StoneCo Ltd's (STNE, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for StoneCo Ltd (STNE, Financial) in one year is $19.73, suggesting a upside of 51.08% from the current price of $13.0593. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the StoneCo Ltd (STNE) Summary page.
Key Business Developments
Release Date: March 18, 2025
- MSMB TPV: BRL403 billion in 2024, 15% year-over-year growth.
- Total MSMB TPV: BRL454 billion, 22% year-over-year increase.
- Retail Deposits: BRL8.7 billion, exceeding BRL7 billion guidance.
- MSMB Take Rate: 2.55% in 2024, exceeding 2.49% guidance.
- Credit Portfolio: BRL1.2 billion, exceeding BRL800 million target.
- Net Income: BRL2.2 billion, exceeding BRL1.9 billion guidance.
- Adjusted Administrative Expenses: BRL994 million, below BRL1.125 billion guidance.
- Adjusted EBT Growth: 22% year-over-year in Q4 2024.
- Adjusted Net Income Growth: 18% year-over-year in Q4 2024.
- Adjusted Net Margin: 18.4% in Q4 2024, 1 percentage point higher year-over-year.
- Adjusted Basic EPS Growth: 26% year-over-year in Q4 2024.
- Total Revenues: 11% year-over-year increase in Q4 2024.
- Gross Profit: BRL1.7 billion in Q4 2024, 13% year-over-year growth.
- MSMB Payments Active Client Base: 4.1 million, 19% year-over-year increase.
- Banking Active Client Base: 3.1 million, 46% year-over-year increase.
- Software Revenue Growth: 15% year-over-year in Q4 2024.
- Software Adjusted EBITDA Growth: 54% year-over-year, reaching 21.6% margin.
- Adjusted Net Cash Position: BRL4.7 billion at year-end 2024.
- Share Repurchase: BRL1.6 billion in 2024.
- Excess Capital: Over BRL3 billion as of December 31, 2024.
- 2025 Guidance - Adjusted Gross Profit: Above BRL7.05 billion.
- 2025 Guidance - Adjusted Basic EPS: Above BRL8.6 per share.
- 2027 Guidance - MSMB TPV: Surpassing BRL670 billion.
- 2027 Guidance - Adjusted Gross Profit: Exceeding BRL10.2 billion.
- 2027 Guidance - Adjusted Basic EPS: Exceeding BRL15 per share.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- StoneCo Ltd (STNE, Financial) achieved a 22% year-over-year increase in total MSMB TPV, reaching BRL454 billion, exceeding expectations.
- Retail deposits closed 2024 at BRL8.7 billion, surpassing the BRL7 billion guidance, indicating strong client engagement with banking solutions.
- The company reported an MSMB take rate of 2.55% in 2024, exceeding the 2.49% guidance, reflecting disciplined pricing and growing contributions from banking and credit solutions.
- StoneCo Ltd (STNE) achieved a net income of BRL2.2 billion, surpassing the BRL1.9 billion guidance, despite macroeconomic challenges.
- The credit portfolio reached BRL1.2 billion, significantly exceeding the BRL800 million target, while maintaining controlled risk with non-performing loans over 90 days at 3.61%.
Negative Points
- MSMB card TPV fell short of the BRL412 billion guidance, reaching BRL403 billion due to faster-than-expected adoption of PIX.
- The company recognized a goodwill impairment charge of BRL3.6 billion for the software cash-generating units, impacting financial results.
- Financial expenses increased 10% year over year and 14% sequentially, driven by a higher yield curve in the quarter.
- StoneCo Ltd (STNE) did not increase prices in the fourth quarter despite a less favorable macroeconomic environment, impacting short-term profitability.
- The company has not received offers meeting the intrinsic value for its software assets, leading to uncertainty about potential divestitures.
