San Francisco's darkest days may be behind it—and some of the savviest investors are placing their biggest bets yet. From Ghazi Shami's $22.5 million scoop of the historic One Montgomery to Jony Ive's $100 million+ real estate revival in Jackson Square, it's clear: the billionaires are back. Google's (GOOG, Financial) Sergey Brin quietly snapped up a distressed loan, Greg Flynn is circling Market Center, and Stephen Curry grabbed a prime property near the Warriors' home court. What do they see? A once-in-a-decade reset.
Yes, the numbers still look ugly. Office vacancies are flirting with 36%. Downtown foot traffic is nowhere near 2019 levels. But something's shifting. For the first time since 2020, San Francisco posted positive net office absorption. Tech talent is drifting back from Miami and Austin, drawn by the gravity of an AI boom headquartered here. City Hall is finally cracking down on street crime and pushing employees back to the office. And the most desirable buildings—like the Transamerica Pyramid—are starting to command pre-pandemic lease rates. Veteran investor Greg Flynn says it best: “Recoveries usually start before people realize—and then they move fast.”
This isn't just a bottom-fisher's game. It's a long-term conviction play. These buyers aren't flipping for a quick buck—they're betting on legacy. Ive is reshaping Jackson Square. Ghazi is turning a former bank into a cultural beacon. Flynn is teaming up with the Pelosis to restore icons. The message? While the spreadsheets still scream risk, those with vision—and deep pockets—are diving in. They're not just buying buildings. They're backing the rebirth of a city that's been written off too many times before.
