A prominent homebuilding company has outlined its financial expectations and strategic objectives for the fiscal year 2025. The company anticipates an average home closing price ranging from $590,000 to $600,000, with an ending active community count projected to reach 355. Additionally, they foresee a tax rate between 24.5% and 25%.
The company recognizes the complexity of managing its diverse portfolio and emphasizes a tailored approach for each community, taking into account competitive dynamics, sales trends, and market influences. With current market conditions expected to persist, the company plans to deliver between 13,000 and 13,500 homes in 2025, with a gross margin on closings of approximately 23%.
Despite the uncertain market environment, the company remains committed to its long-term growth strategy, aiming to achieve 20,000 home closings by 2028. While recognizing 2025 as a potential hurdle, they believe their strategic focus on disciplined decision-making and product positioning will ensure sustained high returns. They predict low-to-mid 20% gross margins on home closings and high-teen returns on equity over the long run.
The company also highlights the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the housing market, driven by demographic factors and the need for new construction. In pursuit of its 20,000 closings target, the company intends to prioritize profitability and shareholder returns, while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Their strategy, proven effective over more than a decade, aims to deliver long-term returns by carefully balancing development pace and pricing within their varied portfolio, prepared to face the cyclical nature of the housing market.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 8 analysts, the average target price for Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC, Financial) is $72.89 with a high estimate of $85.00 and a low estimate of $55.00. The average target implies an upside of 23.98% from the current price of $58.79. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 10 brokerage firms, Taylor Morrison Home Corp's (TMHC, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC, Financial) in one year is $48.49, suggesting a downside of 17.52% from the current price of $58.79. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) Summary page.
