In the second quarter, the average closing price of homes was projected to be $585,000 with an anticipated tax rate sitting at 25%. Although January sales started sluggishly, they steadied in February and experienced modest growth in March, following a typical seasonal pattern, though the growth was slightly slower than expected during the early spring selling season.
The company's monthly absorption rate per community rose to 3.3, a significant improvement from 2.6 in the fourth quarter. However, this was a slight drop from the previous year's near-record high of 3.7. Despite this decline, the current rate remains substantially above the pre-COVID first-quarter average rate of 2.6, spanning the years from 2013 to 2019.
Growth was primarily driven by the resort lifestyle segment, particularly strong in Florida, while the move-up segment saw a slight decrease. More significantly, there was a notable decline in the entry-level sales, underscoring the company's strategy to maintain broad consumer reach by focusing on larger communities with faster sales paces.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 8 analysts, the average target price for Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC, Financial) is $72.89 with a high estimate of $85.00 and a low estimate of $55.00. The average target implies an upside of 23.98% from the current price of $58.79. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 10 brokerage firms, Taylor Morrison Home Corp's (TMHC, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC, Financial) in one year is $48.49, suggesting a downside of 17.52% from the current price of $58.79. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) Summary page.
