Tesla (TSLA, Financial) is anticipated to release its first-quarter financial results on Tuesday, April 22, followed by a conference call later in the evening. Analysts are projecting varying outcomes based on recent developments and market conditions.
Wells Fargo has noted low expectations for Tesla's Q1 performance, attributing it to weak delivery numbers. The firm anticipates that low production volumes will negatively impact earnings. Moreover, Wells Fargo suggests that potential updates or surprises regarding the Model 2, Cybercab, or Optimus could divert attention from core financial metrics. The firm maintains an Underweight rating with a $130 price target on the stock.
Conversely, Bank of America (BofA) has adjusted its price target for Tesla from $380 to $305, retaining a Neutral rating. BofA believes production and sales volumes may exceed earlier expectations, potentially leading to stronger-than-anticipated Q1 results. However, the firm highlights ongoing concerns about tariff impacts, advising caution as companies might revise or withdraw guidance amid heightened uncertainty.
GLJ Research also lowered its year-end price target for Tesla to $19.05 from $24.86, advising a Sell rating. For Q1, GLJ forecasts revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $19.6 billion and 25 cents, respectively, which lags behind consensus estimates of $21.5 billion and 44 cents. This sentiment extends to their FY25 forecast, which they predict will fall short of market expectations.
Barclays reduced its price target for Tesla to $275 from $325, maintaining an Equal Weight rating. While recognizing a potentially "confusing" setup for the earnings, Barclays sees potential upside if Tesla's narrative, including CEO Elon Musk's engagement and upcoming product launches, garners excitement. Despite expected challenges in achieving volume growth, particularly in auto margins, the firm notes the significance of a planned launch for unsupervised, driverless technology in Austin by June.
Additionally, Tesla has postponed the production launch of its affordable Model Y, with global production now expected to begin later than previously planned. The company has also curtailed production targets for the Cybertruck while shifting resources to the Model Y line.
In the first quarter, Tesla reported deliveries of 336,681 vehicles and production of 362,615 units. The company acknowledged production losses due to changes in Model Y lines but highlighted a positive ramp-up trajectory for the New Model Y.
Market consensus anticipates Q1 earnings per share (EPS) of 42 cents and revenue of $21.41 billion. Tesla's upcoming earnings report may offer further insight into whether it will meet or surpass these expectations.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 44 analysts, the average target price for Tesla Inc (TSLA, Financial) is $305.21 with a high estimate of $465.70 and a low estimate of $19.05. The average target implies an upside of 27.53% from the current price of $239.32. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Tesla Inc (TSLA) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 54 brokerage firms, Tesla Inc's (TSLA, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.7, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Tesla Inc (TSLA, Financial) in one year is $289.51, suggesting a upside of 20.97% from the current price of $239.32. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Tesla Inc (TSLA) Summary page.
