Wall Street analysts highlight a shift in the GLP-1 weight loss drug market from injectable to convenient oral forms, with Eli Lilly (LLY, Financial) taking an early lead. Their oral drug, Orforglipron, has shown promising results in Phase 3 trials, potentially outperforming injectable GLP-1 drugs.
Following these developments, Eli Lilly's stock surged over 14%, marking its largest single-day gain since August 2023. In contrast, Novo Nordisk's stock fell by nearly 8%. Orforglipron demonstrated significant efficacy, with participants losing an average of 16 pounds, or 7.9% of their body weight, exceeding initial expectations.
Orforglipron's oral form offers a significant convenience advantage over weekly injectable alternatives like Wegovy. Eli Lilly is preparing for large-scale production, with a recent $550 million inventory build-up, mainly related to Orforglipron. Analysts suggest this positions Eli Lilly as a market leader, potentially maintaining higher pricing power over time.
Meanwhile, Pfizer's exit from developing its oral weight loss drug Danuglipron due to safety concerns further solidifies Eli Lilly's leading position. The GLP-1 market is anticipated to grow from $28 billion to $95 billion by 2030, with Orforglipron's peak sales potentially reaching $23.5 billion by 2035.
