UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has reduced its full-year financial outlook following its first-quarter earnings report, citing adjustments due to care activity and member profiles. This development comes as Elevance (ELV) also shared preliminary first-quarter results, indicating that their medical cost trends, especially in their Medicare Advantage segment, are in line with expectations, despite the trends remaining high.
Truist's analysis suggests that the entirety of the increased Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) is linked to UnitedHealth's Medicare Advantage portfolio. This assumption is applied to Agilon Health (AGL, Financial), where a similar 200 basis points rise in MLR could potentially result in an estimated $119 million EBITDA shortfall.
The analysis by Truist delivers mixed insights for various stakeholders within the healthcare market. They perceive the outcomes as potentially adverse for Agilon and range from negative to neutral for Astrana Health (ASTH). In contrast, the outlook is deemed neutral to positive for both Privia Health (PRVA) and Evolent Health (EVH). Consequently, Truist maintains Buy ratings for Privia, Astrana, and Evolent, while holding a Hold rating for Agilon.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 15 analysts, the average target price for Agilon Health Inc (AGL, Financial) is $4.11 with a high estimate of $8.50 and a low estimate of $2.00. The average target implies an upside of 15.71% from the current price of $3.56. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Agilon Health Inc (AGL) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 22 brokerage firms, Agilon Health Inc's (AGL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.9, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Agilon Health Inc (AGL, Financial) in one year is $36.81, suggesting a upside of 935.44% from the current price of $3.555. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Agilon Health Inc (AGL) Summary page.
