New U.S. export restrictions are likely to shave 8% to 10% off Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) and Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD, Financial) 2025 earnings per share, according to a Thursday investor note from JPMorgan (JPM, Financial).
The banks' analysts said both chipmakers were recently notified by U.S. authorities that shipping their H20 and MI308 chips to China would require new licenses. Nvidia has warned it expects a $5.5 billion charge due to the halt in shipments, while AMD estimated an $800 million hit.
JPMorgan analysts, led by Harlan Sur, said they expect Nvidia's $5.5 billion inventory charge, at a 65% to 67% gross margin, could translate into a $15 billion to $16 billion revenue impact, or roughly 8% to 10% of its anticipated total $180 billion in data center GPU sales this year.
For AMD, the same charge at a 45% to 55% margin would imply a $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion impact, based on an estimated $16 billion in data center revenue. That equates to about 10% of that segment.
JPMorgan expects the overall revenue impact on merchant AI GPUs to fall in the same 8% to 10% range.
