Retail therapy is turning tactical. US retail sales spiked 1.4% in March—the sharpest monthly gain since early 2022—as consumers scrambled to buy ahead of a fresh round of Trump tariffs. Autos led the surge with a 5.3% jump, driving a nearly four-year high in monthly car sales. Ford (F, Financial) posted a 19% gain in retail, Honda (HMC, Financial) saw 13%, and Hyundai locked in its second-best month ever. The rush? A looming 25% tariff on imported vehicles, which could hike prices by $2,500 to $20,000 depending on the model. Wells Fargo summed it up: “Consumers are playing beat-the-clock.”
The urgency isn't just in car dealerships. Americans are scooping up electronics, building materials, and even home renovation supplies. Retailers like Walmart are holding the line on prices—for now. Hyundai has committed to freeze prices through early June, while Stellantis (STLA, Financial) and Ford are dangling employee pricing deals. JPMorgan (JPM, Financial) saw a 7% jump in card spending last quarter, with CFO Jeremy Barnum noting “front-loading” behavior as households rush to buy before prices spike. Even factory output surprised to the upside, rising 5.1% in Q1—fueled by panic orders ahead of the tariff wave.
But here's the catch: what goes up in a rush often comes down hard. Economists are warning that once this buying spree fades, we may be looking at a consumer hangover. Sentiment is already near record lows. Business investment is stalling. Airlines and hotels are bracing for a slowdown. As Trump hikes tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, and exemptions on things like smartphones expire, the pressure will mount. The Atlanta Fed trimmed its GDP forecast to -0.1%. “It's going to get a lot more expensive to wait,” one consumer said. But the real question is: what happens when there's nothing left to buy early?
