Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just made it official: the economy's at a crossroads, and tariffs aren't helping. In his first remarks since Trump hit pause on parts of his trade war, Powell warned that inflation and employment could both drift further from the Fed's targets. Translation? The central bank's hands are tied—for now. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is lining up a rate cut of its own, though expectations are low that it'll offer real clarity. With the Fed boxed in, inflation creeping up, and growth slowing, investors are bracing for a stagflation cocktail they didn't order. Gold didn't wait—punching through to an all-time high of $3,357.40 as investors bailed on the dollar and rushed for safety.
But in a market that's been hit from every angle lately, a few things still move the needle. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, Financial) just delivered a beat that gave tech bulls a reason to breathe. The chipmaking giant's earnings surprised to the upside, helping lift Nasdaq (QQQ, Financial) futures up after a brutal selloff the day before. This came as a welcome contrast to recent downbeat signals from Nvidia (NVDA, Financial), which warned of a $5.5 billion revenue hit due to new U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China, and ASML (ASML, Financial), which flagged lingering tariff-related uncertainty through 2026. The message? Even in a choppy environment, strong fundamentals can still shine through.
Meanwhile, Trump made an unscheduled drop-in at U.S.-Japan trade talks, calling the outcome “big progress” without offering details. Markets liked the sound of it, even if the details remain foggy. Europe's STOXX 600 slipped 0.4% as traders stayed cautious ahead of the weekend, but it's still up 4.2% for the week. Oil crept higher on supply concerns, with Brent at over $66.3, while the yen reversed early gains as Japan's chief negotiator downplayed any FX discussions. Bottom line? This market is jittery, headline-driven, and still digesting rate, trade, and tech shocks. But with TSMC holding the line, there's still some fight left in the bulls.
