KeyBanc's Downgrade of Microsoft (MSFT) Reflects Cloud Concerns | MSFT Stock News

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Apr 17, 2025
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KeyBanc has revised its outlook on Microsoft (MSFT, Financial), moving its rating from Overweight to Sector Weight, after assessing a recent survey of resellers which unveiled decreasing strategic importance for the tech giant. The firm's analysis noted a four-point drop in Microsoft's strategic importance over the past quarter, bringing attention to significant uncertainties regarding artificial intelligence monetization and capital expenditure flexibility.

Notably, the projection for cloud workload deployment has taken a hit, falling to 48% from 56% in the previous quarter's evaluation. This downturn aligns with growing apprehensions about Microsoft's short-term spending and cloud adoption trends, prompting KeyBanc to adopt a more cautious stance on the company's shares.

The firm has also expressed concerns over Microsoft's substantial capital expenditure commitments, which could constrain financial flexibility in the coming year. Such dynamics may intensify pressure on the company’s margins, potentially tying stock performance more closely to the outcomes of its Azure cloud platform, particularly in a challenging macroeconomic environment.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast

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Based on the one-year price targets offered by 49 analysts, the average target price for Microsoft Corp (MSFT, Financial) is $493.57 with a high estimate of $650.00 and a low estimate of $423.00. The average target implies an upside of 32.82% from the current price of $371.61. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Forecast page.

Based on the consensus recommendation from 60 brokerage firms, Microsoft Corp's (MSFT, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.

Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Microsoft Corp (MSFT, Financial) in one year is $497.62, suggesting a upside of 33.91% from the current price of $371.61. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Summary page.

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I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.