Alcoa (AA, Financial) anticipates maintaining its strong Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA performance in the second quarter of 2025, continuing from the previous quarter. However, the company's Aluminum Segment is expected to experience a $90 million negative impact due to U.S. Section 232 tariffs on aluminum imports from Canada. Additionally, the San Ciprian smelter restart is projected to cost an extra $15 million.
On a positive note, Alcoa expects a sequential saving of $165 million in alumina costs within the Aluminum segment, which could offset some of the adverse effects. The company also foresees an increase in other expenses by approximately $10 million due to losses from equity investments.
Alcoa projects an operational tax benefit ranging between $50 million and $60 million for the second quarter of 2025, influenced by current market conditions and profitability across different jurisdictions. These figures remain dependent on fluctuations in the alumina and aluminum markets.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 9 analysts, the average target price for Alcoa Corp (AA, Financial) is $38.78 with a high estimate of $49.00 and a low estimate of $26.00. The average target implies an upside of 54.70% from the current price of $25.07. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Alcoa Corp (AA) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 12 brokerage firms, Alcoa Corp's (AA, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.3, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Alcoa Corp (AA, Financial) in one year is $30.17, suggesting a upside of 20.34% from the current price of $25.07. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Alcoa Corp (AA) Summary page.
