Citi Research has revised its copper price forecast, anticipating a 25% import tariff on copper in the U.S. during the second quarter of this year. The bank has reduced its three-month copper price expectation from $10,000 per ton to $9,500 per ton.
This adjustment follows an order from former U.S. President Trump to investigate potential tariffs on copper imports as part of efforts to rebuild domestic copper production. Copper plays a crucial role in electric vehicles, military hardware, semiconductors, and various consumer products.
Trump also announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, escalating global trade tensions. Citi expects the U.S. to announce the copper tariff under Section 232 as early as April, with implementation by May.
Citi forecasts copper prices to decline to an average of $8,800 per ton in the latter half of 2025, attributing this to weakened physical demand and negative impacts from increased tariffs and U.S. economic growth challenges.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicts London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices at $9,600, $10,000, and $10,700 per ton over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. The bank also noted potential short-term downside risks to prices due to trade policy updates effective from April 2.
