After years of setbacks, Boeing (BA, Financial) pulled off a surprise win, securing the Air Force's next-gen fighter jet contract that many expected would go to Lockheed Martin (LMT, Financial). The market's reaction? Boeing's value popped by nearly $7 billion, while Lockheed shed around $6 billion. Analysts at Jefferies estimate this program alone could be worth about $5 a share to Boeing over time. And it's not just the Air Force—Boeing is also in the running for the Navy's F/A-XX fighter, which Deutsche Bank values between $1.3B and $2.3B in today's dollars. Investors are waking up to a shift in the defense playbook—and Boeing is suddenly looking like a serious contender again.
That's a big pivot for a company that's been under fire since the 737 MAX crisis. But Boeing is quietly rebuilding. It exited 2024 with a $521 billion backlog and 5,500 jets on order. It's aiming for positive free cash flow in late 2025, and analysts see EPS rebounding by 2026. Still, it's not a smooth flight just yet—no dividend, a heavy debt load, and profitability is still on the horizon. But if management executes, the upside could be real. Boeing is no longer just a turnaround story—it's becoming a credible growth bet.
Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin is doing what it always does: staying stable, paying a solid 2.9% dividend, and delivering consistent results. But growth? That's the question. EPS is barely budging in 2025, and losing out on key contracts is starting to sting. For conservative investors chasing steady income and low volatility, Lockheed still makes sense. But Boeing—after years of turbulence—is finally showing signs of lift-off. Investors with a higher risk appetite might want to start paying closer attention.
