Gold stocks are finally having their moment. After sitting on the sidelines for most of 2024, funds focused on gold miners just posted their biggest monthly inflow in over a year—over $555 million in March. What changed? Gold prices have ripped over 15% this year, breaking above $3,000 an ounce for the first time. That's rekindled optimism that miners can not only absorb higher fuel and labor costs, but also expand margins and generate real cash. The market's taken notice: shares of Newmont (NEM, Financial) and Barrick Gold (GOLD, Financial) are up 27% and 21.5%, respectively—fully reversing earlier losses.
While traditional gold funds and derivatives soaked up $17.8 billion in 2024, gold miner funds were in the red, bleeding $4.6 billion—the worst in a decade. But now, capital is shifting. Barrick just announced a $1 billion share buyback after doubling free cash flow. AngloGold Ashanti unveiled its strongest balance sheet in over ten years and hiked its dividend nearly fivefold. Gold Fields may be next to launch a buyback, while Harmony Gold is going full throttle on a new copper mine in Australia—without outside funding. In short: balance sheets are cleaner, cash is flowing, and investors are starting to take a second look.
With inflation still sticky and geopolitical risk simmering, more investors are seeing gold mining stocks as a two-in-one play: a hedge and a comeback story. “At current gold prices, the profitability returns,” said Pictet's Shaniel Ramjee—echoing a sentiment that's growing louder on Wall Street. VanEck's Imaru Casanova also sees room to run, citing low valuations and rising interest. If gold holds these levels—or pushes higher—expect more capital to rotate back into miners, with upside still on the table.
