Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Stock Surges on Strong Forecast

Author's Avatar
Mar 19, 2025
Article's Main Image

Shares of Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI, Financial) surged by 10.52% following the announcement of robust fourth-quarter 2024 earnings. The company met market expectations with its full-year 2025 sales forecast, projecting a significant growth acceleration to 13.4%, up from 8.5% in FY2024, driven by plans to open 75 new stores in 2025, compared to 50 in 2024.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI, Financial) is currently trading at $109.485 with a market capitalization of $6.71 billion. The company's stock carries a price-earnings (PE) ratio of 32.68, indicating a classic growth stock profile. Despite the recent upward movement, the stock is considered "Significantly Overvalued" with its GF Value standing at 83.5. For detailed insights, refer to the GF Value page for OLLI.

Additionally, OLLI shows promising financial strength with a strong Altman Z-Score of 6.76 and a high Piotroski F-Score of 8, highlighting its robust financial health. The company's consistent revenue and earnings growth further underscore its stability. However, there are notable concerns as the gross margin and operating margin have been in long-term decline, with a severe average rate of decrease per year at -1.1% and -7.7% respectively.

The stock's return on equity (ROE) is 13.51%, reflecting efficient management of shareholders' equity. OLLI's EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) growth is noteworthy at a 1-year growth rate of 30.1%, although the company faces challenges in sustaining this momentum over a 3-year horizon, where it shows a slight decline. Investors should also consider its financial leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, and its cash conversion capabilities, signaling proficient capital management.

In terms of market dynamics, the firm operates in the 'Retail - Defensive' industry, offering discounted brand-name merchandise across the eastern United States. This sector, characterized by a consumer defensive strategy, provides some insulation against economic downturns.

Going forward, Ollie's strategic expansion with an emphasis on opening new stores, together with its unique treasure hunt shopping experience, positions the company well for capturing additional market share. However, investors should remain vigilant regarding profitability pressures and potential impacts on margins in the competitive discount retail space.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.