Antimony, a once-overlooked minor metal, is now at the center of geopolitical maneuvers, driving significant market volatility. The recent surge in antimony prices is attributed to a combination of supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical factors, and export controls.
Antimony has been classified as a "critical mineral" in Western markets, intensifying its strategic importance. China's export restrictions on antimony have widened the price gap between domestic and international markets. This has created a peculiar cycle: China restricts antimony exports, leading to a rise in international prices, which in turn causes domestic shortages and price increases.
In recent trading, antimony-related stocks have skyrocketed, with China's Huayu Mining experiencing a 47.8% increase in a week. The domestic price of antimony ingots has risen from 142,000 yuan per ton in early February to 162,500 yuan per ton by mid-March, representing a 12.6% monthly increase. European prices have soared to $14,950 per ton, attracting speculative investments.
Antimony is crucial for various industries, including new energy, batteries, and defense. The demand is particularly strong in sectors like electric vehicles and electronics, where antimony-based flame retardants are essential. The growth of artificial intelligence further boosts demand for antimony compounds in high-performance chips and semiconductors.
However, the supply side faces contraction pressures, with global antimony production declining since 2011. China's antimony output is challenged by over-extraction, declining ore grades, and environmental concerns. Analysts predict a significant supply-demand mismatch, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and export controls.
Other minor metals like indium and gallium are also experiencing price hikes due to global supply constraints. Indium, vital for LCDs and photovoltaic cells, has risen nearly 30% this year, while refined bismuth prices have surged 84% over the past year. Despite the bullish trend, the sustainability of these price increases depends on a complex interplay of supply-demand dynamics, policy support, and market sentiment.
