Morgan Stanley has issued a research report assigning an "Overweight" rating to Tesla (TSLA, Financial) with a price target of $430. The firm has identified Tesla as a top pick, breaking down the target price into five segments: $86 per share for its core automotive business with an estimated 5.2 million vehicle sales by 2030, $172 per share for network services with a projected 65% subscription rate and $200 average revenue per user by 2040, $90 per share for mobility services, $65 per share for its energy business, and $17 per share for third-party supply business.
At a recent Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) conference in San Francisco, Morgan Stanley discussed key insights with company representatives and clients. The firm believes that the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) will be primarily driven by artificial intelligence (AI) rather than incentives or climate goals. There is growing investor interest in the embodied/physical AI sector, particularly as general robotics technology becomes more prevalent.
Investor interest in humanoid robots has surged since the end of last year, and Morgan Stanley is looking forward to Tesla's first humanoid robot event anticipated later this year. The competition for data is also a focal point. According to Morgan Stanley, obtaining large-scale home scene video sources could be extremely valuable. Data is crucial for training end-to-end Vision Language Action (VLA) models, essential for autonomous vehicles, drones, humanoid robots, and autonomous weapon systems. The firm expects many companies to release "detectors" to gather high-definition physical data.
As of the latest update, Tesla's pre-market shares dipped 0.3% to $262.7, with the stock down 35% year-to-date.
