UBS analysts expect Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) to report strong earnings, with revenue and data center performance meeting or exceeding investor expectations.
Based on data center sector contribution of $38.5 billion to $39 billion, the company anticipates fiscal first-quarter revenue guidance to be between $42.5 billion and $43 billion.
A major modification in Nvidia's revenue recognition methodology will show income from Blackwell compute boards at shipping instead of depending only on OEM/ODM partner whole rack sales. Given computing board sales rising ahead of complete GB200 rack shipments, analysts think Nvidia is controlling a short-term supply chain imbalance.
Customers value availability over waiting for GB200 racks, so high demand is pushing a change toward Blackwell SKUs like as the B200 on the air-cooled HGX platform. With estimates of Blackwell-related income in the fourth quarter at over $9 billion, UBS projects that it might more than quadruple to over $20 billion in the first quarter, corresponding to roughly 700,000 units delivered.
Ahead of a larger GB200 rack launch, which UBS expects to spike in March 2025, Nvidia is likely to keep supplying computing boards. End hyperscale customers help to partly fund certain OEM/ODM inventory finance for Blackwell.
Forecasting $234 billion in 2025 sales and an earnings per share projection of $5.33, UBS has a Buy recommendation on Nvidia, with possible rises to $6.25 or higher in 2026. For the shares, UBS has a target price of $185.
