Morning Brew: Walmart's Earnings Miss and Tesla's Safety Violations Lead the Headlines

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Feb 20, 2025
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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow futures are all experiencing a decline this morning. The S&P 500 futures have dropped by 12 points, the Nasdaq 100 futures have decreased by 45 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down by 128 points.

This drop in futures suggests a natural round of profit-taking after the S&P 500 reached another record high. Some recent earnings results have also disappointed investors, influencing this downturn. Notably, Walmart (WMT, Financial) and Carvana (CVNA) are seeing lower trades due to less-than-expected results or guidance.

Although Treasury yields have decreased slightly, this hasn't been enough to bolster the stock market. The 10-year yield has decreased by four basis points to 4.50%, and the 2-year yield is down by two basis points to 4.25%.

Today's News

Walmart (WMT, Financial) shares experienced a significant drop of 8.5% in premarket trading after the company's profit and sales outlook missed expectations. Despite a 4.2% revenue increase in Q4 2025 and a 10% rise in profits, the outlook for the current quarter and fiscal year 2026 disappointed investors. This comes amid stiff competition and challenges in the macroeconomic environment, including risks associated with tariffs.

Tesla (TSLA, Financial) has been cited by federal regulators for workplace safety violations at its Gigafactory in Austin, Texas. The U.S. Department of Labor confirmed the findings following an investigation into the death of an electrician at the site. The specific nature of the violations and any potential fines were not disclosed.

Nebius Group (NBIS, Financial) reported a Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss of $75.5 million and a net loss of $136.6 million from continuing operations. Despite a revenue increase of 466% year-over-year, driven by its core AI infrastructure business, the company missed revenue expectations by $19.81 million. The December 2024 ARR for Nebius was also below previous guidance.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR, Financial) saw a 3.5% decline in premarket trading following a leaked memo suggesting potential budget cuts in the Department of Defense. However, Wedbush Securities argues that these cuts could provide more opportunities for Palantir, as its unique software approach might attract more IT budget dollars at the Pentagon.

Alibaba (BABA, Financial) reported strong earnings for its fiscal Q3, with an adjusted net profit of 51.07 billion yuan, up 6% from the previous year. The company's revenue and cloud intelligence segment sales exceeded expectations, strengthening its investment thesis. Alibaba's International Digital Commerce Group also saw a significant revenue increase of 32% year-over-year.

Unity Software (U, Financial) announced a Q4 GAAP EPS loss of $0.30, which was better than expected. The company's revenue of $457.1 million beat estimates, driven by a 4% year-over-year increase in revenue from its strategic portfolio. Unity provided guidance for Q1 2025, with expected revenue between $405 million and $415 million.

Allstate (ALL, Financial) estimates catastrophe losses of $1.08 billion for January, primarily due to the California wildfires. The losses include reinsurance reinstatement premiums and assessments, with reinsurance recoveries estimated at $1.4 billion. Other insurers like Travelers (TRV) and Chubb (CB) are also expected to report significant losses from the wildfires.

Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC, Financial) priced a public offering of $165 million in 7.95% unsecured notes due 2032. The company plans to use the proceeds for investments in line with its objectives and strategies. The offering is expected to close on February 27, 2025.

A rise in initial jobless claims was reported, with claims increasing by 5,000 to 219,000 for the week ended February 15. The four-week moving average slightly decreased, while continuing claims remained in line with expectations at 1.869 million.

Consumer discretionary stocks saw a decrease in short interest, with Tapestry (TPR, Financial) and Carmax (KMX, Financial) being the most shorted. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN, Financial) had the least short interest among the stocks in this sector.

Strategy (MSTR, Financial) announced a $2 billion offering of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030, with plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of bitcoin. The offering is expected to close on February 21, 2025.

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) declared a quarterly dividend of $1.60 per share, maintaining its previous payout level. The dividend is payable on March 17 to shareholders of record on March 3.

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Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.