J.P. Morgan downgraded Nio (NIO, Financials) to Neutral from Overweight, citing concerns over the electric vehicle maker's ability to meet its ambitious sales targets.
Reflecting a more wary view of Nio's financial situation, analyst Nick Lai also dropped his price estimate for the stock from $7 to $4.70.
Lai has now adjusted his 2025-2026 sales and profit projections by 7-10% and 13%, respectively, thereby matching them with more general market forecasts.
The business wants to treble sales to around 440,000 units in 2025, while Lai forecasts a lower 334,000-unit volume, a 50% rise from 2024 but still short of Nio's target. Key indications to keep an eye on going forward, the analyst pointed out, would be monthly sales and order flow.
This year Nio intends to unveil many new vehicles, including the mass-market ONVO L60 SUV, introduced in late 2024, and the premium ET9 sedan. Its cheap brand Firefly also launched in December; its initial model—a small sedan—is expected to help with second-quarter sales.
Notwithstanding these product introductions, Lai thinks other Chinese manufacturers are more suited for expansion. He has hence adopted a more cautious view of Nio's future.
