JPMorgan's Market Intelligence team highlights the importance of the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for the stock market's trajectory. The data needs to strike a balance—not too strong, nor too weak—to sustain market gains.
The trading team, led by Andrew Tyler, suggests that if job additions fall below 150,000, the stock market may decline. Conversely, an increase exceeding 230,000 could heighten expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, pressuring the market.
They caution that a low job growth figure, especially around 110,000, could indicate a faster-than-expected cooling of the labor market. This scenario might lead to a reduction in consumer spending, potentially causing the S&P 500 to drop by up to 1.5%. Such a decline would suggest that global trade concerns are impacting the U.S. economy more rapidly than anticipated.
