Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Movement Due to DeepSeek AI Threat

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Feb 04, 2025
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Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) shares experienced a notable decline recently, driven significantly by competition from the emerging Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek. The unveiling of DeepSeek's chatbot, DeepSeek R1, and the release of a comprehensive 22-page research document detailing their open-source AI model led to a decrease in Nvidia's stock price. The stock recently closed at $120.12 with a percentage change of 2.96%.

DeepSeek has claimed that their AI model's training costs were just $5.5 million, which is notably lower than the expenses Nvidia's clients incur for components needed to run AI models like ChatGPT. This has sparked market concerns about the potential impact DeepSeek's cost-effective architecture could have on the demand for Nvidia's components, possibly altering the semiconductor industry's economic landscape.

Furthermore, Nvidia's stock (NVDA, Financial) has faced additional pressure stemming from tariff concerns, further complicating its recovery efforts. Despite some recovery, the stock continued to trade below its initial January 27 closing price.

There is ongoing debate on the long-term ramifications of DeepSeek's technological advancements. While OpenAI has voiced accusations of model training using existing frameworks, Nvidia has publicly acknowledged DeepSeek's noteworthy technological prowess. The broader market is watching closely to see how DeepSeek's innovation could affect Nvidia's chip demand, although American companies may be cautious in their dealings with a Chinese start-up.

From a financial perspective, Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) remains a company with strong fundamentals. It boasts a GF Value that suggests it is modestly undervalued, with a calculated value of $159.58. Investors can find more details on its GF Value here. Despite medium and severe warning signs, such as concerns over financial result manipulation (Beneish M-Score) and insider selling activity, Nvidia displays substantial financial strength. This strength is highlighted by a high Altman Z-Score of 62.04 and an expanding operating margin.

Nvidia is a leader in developing graphics processing units (GPUs) and is making significant strides in artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The firm's advances in AI and data center networking solutions position it as a formidable player in the technology sector. As Nvidia navigates competitive and economic pressures, its financial health and GF Value indicate potential for resilience and future growth.

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I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.