Tesla's Stock Rebounds After Dismal Earnings

Weak Q4 results, falling margins, and an 8% drop in auto sales--yet Tesla's stock is rallying. Here's why.

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Jan 31, 2025
Summary
  • Tesla missed earnings, but Musk’s bold promises on cheaper EVs and Full Self-Driving are keeping investors hooked.
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Tesla (TSLA, Financial) posted a fourth-quarter earnings report that missed expectations, with revenue landing at $25.71 billion—below the $27.26 billion analysts had projected. Automotive sales fell 8% year-over-year, while operating income slid 23%, pressured by price cuts across Tesla's lineup. Despite these headwinds, the stock initially dropped in after-hours trading before rebounding, as investors appeared to focus on Elon Musk's long-term vision. His latest commitments—introducing lower-cost EV models in 2025 and launching unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) in Austin by June—have kept sentiment upbeat, even as near-term financials remain under pressure.

Beyond EVs, Tesla's energy business delivered strong results, with revenue soaring 113% to $3.06 billion—one of the company's few bright spots this quarter. Expansion efforts at its Gigafactories in Berlin and Texas are also progressing, positioning Tesla for greater production scale. However, challenges persist. The company's brand value reportedly dropped by $15 billion in 2024, weighed down by Musk's controversial political presence. Meanwhile, rising competition from legacy automakers and aggressive new EV startups threatens Tesla's market share. With slowing demand and an aging lineup, investors are looking for more than just promises—they need execution.

The bigger question now is whether Tesla's stock rebound signals renewed confidence or just short-term optimism. Musk's vision for autonomous driving and continued market leadership remains a core part of the Tesla bull case, but the road ahead is far from smooth. Execution on new product launches, scaling FSD, and navigating an increasingly competitive EV landscape will be critical in proving whether Tesla can maintain its edge. The next few quarters will reveal whether this is the start of a new growth phase—or just another hype cycle.

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I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours. Click for the complete disclosure