Elon Musk recently shared ambitious plans for Tesla's (TSLA, Financial) Optimus robot during an interview at the CES exhibition. He envisions producing 500,000 humanoid robots in Tesla's factories over the next three years, potentially leading to a global ratio of one robot for every five humans, equating to 30 billion robots worldwide. The target for mass production of Optimus in 2025 is set at several thousand units, rising to 50,000 to 100,000 units in 2026. By 2027, production could reach between 500,000 and 1 million units, showcasing a growth trajectory poised to surpass Tesla's automotive business.
Optimus, heralded as a product set to redefine robotics, was first unveiled as a prototype during Tesla's AI Day in 2022. By July 2023, the first generation of the robot was capable of simple tasks like item retrieval and was deployed for training in Tesla factories. In December 2023, the second generation improved its walking speed by 30% and enhanced balance and body control.
Musk announced that limited production would commence in 2025, with potential leasing options in the future. Analysts suggest that the commercial version of Optimus might be powered by Tesla's FSD AI5 processor, expected to enter production this year. Standing at approximately 1.72 meters tall and weighing around 56.7 kilograms, Optimus utilizes over 200 joints and multiple sensors, including millimeter-wave radar and temperature sensors, for environmental interaction. It's estimated that by 2035, Optimus could generate $10 billion annually for Tesla, provided it reaches sales of around 200,000 units, although Musk’s recent targets appear more aggressive.
