UBS has released a report indicating that Tesla's (TSLA, Financial) vehicle deliveries reached 495,600 units in the fourth quarter of last year, marking a 2% year-over-year and a 7% quarter-over-quarter increase, setting a new quarterly record. However, these figures fell short of market expectations. According to UBS's discussions with investors, the anticipated delivery range was between 500,000 to 510,000 units, with expectations leaning towards the lower end as the year concluded.
The report also highlighted that Tesla's production volume for the same quarter was 459,400 units, reflecting a 7% year-over-year and a 2% quarter-over-quarter decrease. This resulted in production trailing deliveries by approximately 36,000 units, leading to a reduction in inventory. Consequently, UBS has maintained its "sell" rating on Tesla, setting a target price of $226.
UBS noted that immediate market attention will likely shift to Tesla's earnings report at the end of the month. The firm believes that the earnings call might be heavily influenced by comments from co-founder Elon Musk, particularly concerning artificial intelligence, which could affect stock performance more than the financial data itself. Additionally, UBS expects Tesla to provide some guidance on deliveries for 2025, with Musk previously indicating a potential unit growth of 20% to 30%. However, UBS cautions that the slowdown in deliveries, coupled with the removal of U.S. electric vehicle tax incentives, might lead investors to lower their expectations for achieving this growth rate.
