Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research and a seasoned Wall Street expert, predicts the S&P 500 Index will reach 10,000 points by the end of this decade. This forecast suggests a 66% increase by 2030, driven by the economic policies of the newly elected President, Donald Trump. Yardeni outlines that the index could achieve 6,100 points by the end of 2024, 7,000 by the end of 2025, 8,000 by the end of 2026, and eventually 10,000 by 2030.
Yardeni sees a business-friendly administration on the horizon, which is expected to implement tax cuts beneficial to both corporations and individuals. These cuts, alongside regulatory rollbacks, are predicted to nurture "animal spirits" and optimism in the market. Yardeni's optimism hinges on Trump's economic agenda, particularly corporate tax reductions, which could lead to increased profits for American companies. He also notes that resolutions in geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and issues in the Middle East, could further bolster the stock market.
Despite the bullish outlook, Yardeni warns of potential market adjustments, although he does not foresee another bear market by the decade's end. He emphasizes that excessive bullish sentiment is a concern, but the expected rise in consumer and business optimism is likely to revive "animal spirits," akin to the economic boost seen after Trump's 2016 election.
Julian Emanuel, an analyst at independent U.S. investment bank Evercore ISI, shares a similar optimism. Emanuel asserts that the current bull market is still in its early phase, with expectations that the market will accelerate during Trump's presidency. He projects the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 points by mid-next year, driven by Trump's deregulation measures that could enhance corporate profits. Data indicates that bull markets typically see a 152% increase over 50 months, whereas the current market has grown by only 65% in the last 25 months, suggesting it is still in its infancy. Additionally, historical data from Evercore's strategy team shows that a single-party government often benefits the U.S. stock market the most.
