In recent weeks, betting markets have shown a rising probability of a Trump victory, despite traditional polls indicating a tight race between the two main U.S. political candidates. On the betting platform Polymarket, four anonymous accounts have been making significant bets on Trump's success, attracting attention from experts who suggest these accounts may be linked, showing a significant financial stake in the Trump outcome.
Polymarket confirmed that a single trader, a Frenchman with extensive experience in trading and financial services, controls these four accounts. As of Thursday morning, these accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—held $45 million in open positions. The platform, with external expert assistance, investigated these accounts and found no evidence of market manipulation. The trader established positions based on personal election predictions.
An analysis revealed that the Theo4 account placed up to 71 bets per minute earlier this week, and the Theo4 and Fredi9999 accounts made up to 2,500 bets in 24 hours. These bets ranged from one dollar to tens of thousands of dollars, likely an effort to prevent significant price increases in betting contracts, reflecting the trader's extensive trading experience.
Polymarket stated that the trader agreed not to open additional accounts without notification. The platform also mentioned that Trump's winning probability aligns closely with other betting sites, with Polymarket showing Trump's election odds at 62% and Harris at 38%. On another major prediction platform, Kalshi, Trump's odds are 59%, while Harris stands at 41%.
Despite these betting trends favoring Trump, polling data tells a different story. According to RealClearPolitics, as of Thursday, Harris's support rate was 48.7%, slightly ahead of Trump's 48.5%.
