What's Driving Advance Auto Parts Inc's Surprising 33% Stock Rally?

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP, Financial) has experienced a notable uptick in its stock performance, with a market capitalization now standing at $4.67 billion. The current price of AAP's stock is $78.51, reflecting a significant 8.77% gain over the past week and an even more impressive 33.29% gain over the past three months. Despite these gains, the GF Value of $196.14 suggests a different story, indicating that the stock might be a possible value trap, and investors should think twice before making a move. This is a shift from the past GF Value of $207.08, which labeled the stock as significantly undervalued.

Understanding Advance Auto Parts Inc

Advance Auto Parts Inc, a key player in the retail-cyclical industry, is a leading retailer of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories. Catering to both do-it-yourself customers and professional repair facilities, Advance Auto Parts operated 5,086 stores and serviced 1,311 independently owned Carquest stores by the end of 2022. The company's Worldpac chain is a top distributor of imported original-equipment parts, with commercial clients accounting for 59% of its 2022 sales. 1767553958886404096.png

Profitability Insights

Advance Auto Parts Inc boasts a Profitability Rank of 7/10, indicating a strong position within the industry. The company's operating margin stands at 1.17%, outperforming 35.71% of 1,109 companies in the same sector. Additionally, AAP's return on equity (ROE) is 1.68%, surpassing 36.74% of its peers, while its return on assets (ROA) at 0.36% and return on invested capital (ROIC) at 1.62% also demonstrate competitive advantages. Notably, the company has maintained profitability for the past 10 years, a feat better than 99.9% of 1,047 companies. 1767553975579734016.png

Growth Trajectory

The Growth Rank for Advance Auto Parts Inc is also 7/10, reflecting a solid growth pattern. The company's 3-year revenue growth rate per share is 8.90%, which is higher than 63.16% of 1,037 companies. Similarly, the 5-year revenue growth rate per share is 8.80%, outpacing 71.26% of 915 companies. Looking ahead, the estimated total revenue growth rate for the next 3 to 5 years is 1.34%. However, the 3-year EPS without NRI growth rate shows a decline of 65.40%, and the 5-year EPS without NRI growth rate also decreased by 28.80%. Despite these setbacks, the future EPS growth rate is projected at a robust 14.00%. 1767553993581686784.png

Top Shareholders

Notable investors have taken significant positions in Advance Auto Parts Inc. Richard Pzena (Trades, Portfolio) leads the pack with 1,299,164 shares, representing a 2.18% stake in the company. Following him is Chuck Royce (Trades, Portfolio), holding 670,596 shares, which accounts for 1.13% of AAP's shares. Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) also has a notable presence with 496,550 shares, making up 0.83% of the company's shares.

Competitive Landscape

When comparing Advance Auto Parts Inc to its competitors, we see that it holds its ground in the retail-cyclical industry. Savers Value Village Inc (SVV, Financial) has a market cap of $3.18 billion, GameStop Corp (GME, Financial) stands at $4.33 billion, and RH (RH, Financial) boasts a market cap of $5.19 billion. These figures place AAP in a competitive position within its market segment.

Conclusion

In summary, Advance Auto Parts Inc's recent stock performance has been impressive, with a 33.29% gain over the past three months. However, the current GF Valuation suggests caution, as the stock may be a possible value trap. The company's profitability and growth metrics remain strong, with a consistent track record over the past decade. Significant shareholders like Richard Pzena (Trades, Portfolio), Chuck Royce (Trades, Portfolio), and Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) maintain a vested interest in AAP's success. When viewed alongside its competitors, Advance Auto Parts Inc demonstrates a robust market presence and competitive edge in the retail-cyclical industry, making it a stock worth watching for value investors.

This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.