Michael Zhuang, the Investment Scientist at MZ Capital made an interesting study about Jim Cramer’s calls a year ago. Here are the results.
Jim Cramer:
What I'm saying is that there are bargains right now, there are stocks right now that if you're shrewd enough, you will be able to buy them at the opening today and I you'll make money in a year from now.
It has been a year since Jim Cramer made his many picks in Mad Money Lighting Round. Undoubtedly, many people followed his advice buying his stock picks. To get an idea of how much money they made, I decided to do a little research.
The research is straightforward enough. I looked up the recap of Mad Money Lighting Round at SeekingAlpha.com and tabulated Jim Cramer’s bullish and bearish calls. I then calculated one-year returns from the second (market) day he made the calls.
Bullish: If a bullish call has a one year return higher than that of the S&P 500, it is a right call. If not, it’s a wrong call.
Bearish: If a bearish call has a one year return lower than the S&P 500, it is a right call. Otherwise it’s a wrong call.
I calculated the accuracy of his calls by this formula: Accuracy = right call/all calls. I also determined what return a loyal Cramer follower would have made if he/she had bought all of his bullish calls and sold all of his bearish calls.
In January of 2007, Jim Cramer made a total of 194 bullish calls and 123 bearish calls. Out of the 194 bullish calls, 85 are right calls. Out of the 123 bearish calls, 62 are right calls. The accuracy of Jim Cramer’s bullish calls is 43.81% and that of his bearish calls is 50.4%. The combined accuracy is 46.37%.
During the one-year period after Jim Cramer made his calls, the S&P 500 fell an average of 3.72%, his bullish calls on average fell by 3.78% (underperforming the market) but his bearish calls actually increased by 1.41% (outperforming the market). Ouch! A double Whammy!
The table below shows Jim Cramer’s calls on 1/3/2007 and their subsequent one year returns. You may request a complete report of all of his January 2007 calls from MZ Capital.
| Date | Bullish Calls | 1y return | | Bearish Calls | 1y return |
| 1/3/2007 | CVX | 38.46% | | XOM | 31.17% |
| MPEL | -50.53% | | MOT | -20.97% |
| NYX | -11.22% | | NOK | 86.41% |
| EBAY | 3.96% | | HSY | -20.94% |
| SPG | -14.71% | | | |
| NXG | -1.89% | | | |
| AUY | 25.53% | | | |
| KRY | -32.88% | | | |
| DELL | -9.64% | | | |
| WFC | -17.58% | | | |
