Two new migraine treatments from AbbVie Inc. (ABBV, Financial) could help offset any headaches caused by declining sales of the company’s mega-blockbuster Humira.
The Chicago-area drug giant thinks Ubrelvy, a pill for acute relief from migraine attacks, and Qulipta, a pill to prevent attacks, will each throw off revenues of more than $1 billion at their peak, reported FiercePharma. But analysts at Evercore think the drugs have far more potential, possibly generating sales of $2 billion each at the top. Their analyst, Josh Schimmer, said the higher estimate is based on a survey of 25 neurologists.
While Humira is likely to regain its status as the top-selling drug in the world, the consulting firm Evaluate thinks the estimate of $13 billion could be lower if competitors with biosimilars further eat into AbbVie’s share. The impact of these copycat treatments is expected to pick up steam as we move closer to 2023, when Humira’s patent expires.
The biggest threat to Ubrelvy is Nurtec ODT from Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company Ltd. (BHVN, Financial). That drug is approved to both treat and prevent migraines. Evercore thinks the growing popularity of Nurtec will cause Ubrelvy’s share of the calcitonin gene-related peptide acute market to drop from 38% to 31%, but they predict growth in the entire class of CGRP medications will boost sales of both treatments.
In fact, over the next five years, Evercore projects the use of CGRP drugs in the acute setting to grow by 200%. In the preventative setting, analysts believe growth will be 150% over the same period. Evercore cites Biohaven’s pre-announced fourth-quarter sales of $190 million, a 40% increase from the third quarter, as evidence of a “robust outlook for the CGRP class.”
CGRP stands for calcitonin gene-related peptide, and it is a protein that is released around the brain. When that happens, it causes intense inflammation in the coverings of the brain (the meninges), and for most migraine patients, causes the pain of a migraine attack. The drugs work against CGRP and against the receptor to which CGRP binds.
After their survey of 99 primary care doctors last fall, Piper Sandler analysts said Nurtec would grow at the expense of Ubrelvy, estimating 2023 sales of $1.38 billion for Nurtec versus $769 million for Ubrelvy and $437 million for the Amgen Inc. (AMGN, Financial) injectable Aimovig. Piper was also bullish on Qulipta, believing sales of the medication could hit $735 million in 2023, nearly double the Wall Street consensus of $370 million.
