Williams-Sonoma (Williams-Sonoma) Predictability Rank

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What is Williams-Sonoma Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Williams-Sonoma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Williams-Sonoma (Williams-Sonoma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Williams-Sonoma Inc (NYSE:WSM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WSM:Mexico WM1:Germany

Address

3250 Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94109

Website

https://www.williams-sonomainc.com

With a retail and direct-to-consumer presence, Williams-Sonoma is a player in the $300 billion domestic home category, focused on expanding its exposure in the B2B, marketplace, and franchise areas. Namesake Williams-Sonoma (163 stores) offers high-end cooking essentials, while Pottery Barn (191) provides casual home accessories. Brand extensions include Pottery Barn Kids (46) and PBteen. West Elm (123) is an emerging concept for young professionals, and Rejuvenation (10) offers lighting and house parts. Williams-Sonoma also has a business-to-business team that supports projects that range from residential to large-scale commercial.

Executives

Laura Alber	officer: PRESIDENT, POTTERY BARN BRANDS
Karalyn Smith	officer: EVP CHIEF TALENT OFFICER	C/O WILLIAMS-SONOMA, INC., 3250 VAN NESS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Marta Benson	officer: PRESIDENT POTTERY BARN BRAND	C/O RESTORATION HARDWARE, 15 KOCH ROAD, SUITE J, CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Jeremy Brooks	officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	C/O WILLIAMS-SONOMA, INC., 3250 VAN NESS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Jeffrey Howie	officer: EVP CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O WILLIAMS-SONOMA, INC., 3250 VAN NESS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Julie Whalen	officer: VP, CONTROLLER	3260 VAN NESS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Ryan Ross	officer: PRESIDENT WS BRAND	3250 VAN NESS AVE., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Sabrina Simmons	director	GAP INC., 2 FOLSOM STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Anne A. Finucane	director	ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895
David Randolph King	officer: SVP GENERAL COUNSEL	3250 VAN NESS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Paula B Pretlow	director	C/O CION ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Alex Bellos	officer: PRESIDENT WEST ELM BRAND	C/O WILLIAMS-SONOMA, INC., 3250 VAN NESS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Esi Eggleston Bracey	director	C/O SIX FLAGS ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION, 1000 BALLPARK WAY, SUITE 400, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Grace Puma Whiteford	director	C/O WILLIAM SONOMA, INC., 3250 VAN NESS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Bellamy Adrian D P	director	C/O GAP, INC., 2 FOLSOM ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105