World Acceptance (World Acceptance) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

World Acceptance Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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World Acceptance (World Acceptance) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » World Acceptance Corp (NAS:WRLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

104 South Main Street, Greenville, SC, USA, 29601

Website

https://www.loansbyworld.com

World Acceptance Corp operates a small-loan consumer finance business. The company offers short-term small installment loans, medium-term larger installment loans, related credit insurance and ancillary products and services to individuals. It also offers income tax return preparation services to its loan customers and other individuals.

Executives

Calmes John L Jr	officer: VP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION, 108 FREDERICK STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29607
Jason E. Childers	officer: SVP, IT Strategic Solutions	108 FREDERICK STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29607
Scott Mcintyre	officer: SVP, Accounting	108 FREDERICK STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29607
Clifford Sosin	10 percent owner	8 WRIGHT STREET, 1ST FL, WESTPORT CT 06880
Thomas W Smith	10 percent owner, other: Member of Section 13(d) Group	2200 BUTTS ROAD, SUITE 320, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Luke J. Umstetter	officer: SVP, General Counsel	104 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, GREENVILLE SC 29601
Darrell E Whitaker	director	14 BATSON ORCHARD CT., TAYLORS SC 29687
R Chad Prashad	officer: See remarks	108 FREDERICK STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29607
Alice Lindsay Caulder	officer: SVP, Human Resources	108 FREDERICK STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29607
Daniel Clinton Dyer	officer: SVP, CENTRAL DIVISION	230 4TH AVENUE NORTH SUITE 500, NASHVILLE TN 37219
Charles D Way	director
Elizabeth R. Neuhoff	director	146 SOTA DRIVE, JUPITER FL 33458
Robinson Benjamin E Iii	director	325 CORPORATE DRIVE, PORTSMOUTH NH 03885
Bramlett Ken R Jr	director	2709 WATER RIDGE PARKWAY, 2ND FLOOR, CHARLOTTE NC 28217
Alison N Labruyere	officer: SVP and General Counsel	108 FREDERICK STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29607