Walmart (WMT) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1970. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Walmart Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Walmart Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Walmart's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Walmart (WMT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WMT:Peru WMT:Mexico 1WMT:Italy WMTd:UK 0R1W:UK WMTD:Germany WMT:Germany WMT:Germany WMT:Germany WMT:Germany WMT:Chile WMT:Canada WALM34:Brazil WMT:Austria WMT:Argentina

Address

702 S.W. 8th Street, Bentonville, AR, USA, 72716

Website

https://stock.walmart.com

Walmart serves as the preeminent retailer in the United States, with its strategy predicated on superior operating efficiency and offering the lowest priced goods to consumers to drive robust store traffic and product turnover. Walmart augmented its low-price business strategy by offering a convenient one-stop shopping destination with the opening of its first supercenter in 1988.Today, Walmart operates over 4,700 stores in the United States (5,300 including Sam's Club) and over 10,000 stores globally. Walmart generated over $420 billion in domestic namesake sales last year, with Sam's Club contributing another $84 billion to the firm's top line. Internationally, Walmart generated $100 billion in sales. The company serves around 240 million customers globally each week.

Executives

John D Rainey	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Jim C Walton	director, other: Director	C/O WALTON ENTERPRISES, INC., P.O. BOX 1860, BENTONVILLE AR 72712
S Robson Walton	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board	C/O WALTON ENTERPRISES, INC., P.O. BOX 1860, BENTONVILLE AR 72716-0105
Alice L Walton	10 percent owner	110 N.W. SECOND STREET, SUITE 300, BENTONVILLE AR 72712
C Douglas Mcmillon	officer: Executive Vice President	702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
John R. Furner	officer: Executive Vice President	702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
Rachel L Brand	officer: Executive Vice President	702 S.W. 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
Christopher James Nicholas	officer: Executive Vice President	702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
David Chojnowski	officer: Senior Vice President	5505 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Daniel J Bartlett	officer: Executive Vice President	702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
Randall L Stephenson	director	208 S. AKARD ST., DALLAS TX 75202
Judith J Mckenna	officer: Executive Vice President	702 S.W. 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
M. Brett Biggs	officer: Executive Vice President	702 SW 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716
Marc E. Lore	officer: Executive Vice President	443 GREENWICH STREET, PHA, NEW YORK NY 10013
Kathryn J. Mclay	officer: Executive Vice President	702 S.W. 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716